Stone Studio

In a decade, BRIC has been transformed from a marketing term to an investment craze to a political bloc.

Around 2001, Goldman Sachs created the acronym for Brazil, Russia, India and China, nations with rapidly growing economic output.

Investors rushed. Shares soared. Packaged products followed. In December 2005, a BRIC index was launched, which allowed for the creation of cheap, passive investment funds. Over five years, the index has returned 20% a year, versus zero for the MSCI World Index.

There’s little reason to doubt the growth potential of the BRICs. Collectively, they contain 40% of the world’s population and provide 15% of its economic output. Investors should, nonetheless, view the group cautiously at the moment, for at least four reasons.

Economic growth and stock returns are not the same. How closely the two match depends in part on the supply of shares. China’s economy dwarfs those of its BRIC brethren by size, but Brazil dominates most BRIC indexes, in part because it has plenty of tradable shares.

Popularity has a steep price. Shares in the U.S. look expensive, at about 20 times 2009 earnings, with only a 2% dividend yield. But BRIC shares are closer to 25 times earnings, with a dividend yield of less than 1%. It used to be that investors in emerging-markets shares demanded deep discounts to offset political and institutional risk. Now, they pay a rich premium.

BRIC countries carry risks. China keeps its currency artificially cheap and, in doing so, risks inflation. Russia depends heavily on energy exports. India has bloated government, ethnic conflicts, hostile neighbors and controls on foreign investment. Brazil has a soaring currency — a tribute to its accomplishments, but also a threat to exports.

BRIC stocks can fall fast. An investor who plunked dollars into the iShares MSCI BRIC Index fund when it launched in November 2007 watched it lose two-thirds of its value in barely a year. It has come roaring back.

But with 2010 having begun with stocks priced ambitiously the world over, now seems a risky time to load up on stocks in general, and BRIC shares in particular.

短短10年时间，“金砖四国”(BRIC)就从一个营销术语变成一个投资热门，然后又变为一个政治集团。

2001年前后，高盛(Goldman Sachs)将巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国的英文国名首字母连缀起来，组成了这样一个概念。这几个国家的共同点在于经济产出增长迅速。

投资者蜂拥而入，股价飙升，打包产品接踵而至。2005年12月，一项金砖四国指数推出，于是各种低价、消极型投资基金应运而生。五年来，该指数年回报率达20%，相比之下摩根士丹利资本国际世界指数(MSCI World Index)回报率为零。

基本没有什么理由去质疑金砖四国的增长潜力。它们的人口加起来占了世界人口总数的40%，其经济产出总量占世界的15%。不过在目前，投资者应当审慎看待这个群体。理由至少有四条：

经济增长与股市回报不匹配。两者的匹配程度部分地取决于股票的供给。中国经济的规模让其他三国相形见绌，但巴西在多数金砖四国指数中比重最大，这在一定程度上是因为它拥有大量流通股。

太受追捧，水涨船高。美国的股价显得很高，2009年的市盈率约为20倍，股息收益率只有2%。而金砖四国的市盈率接近25倍，股息收益率不足1%。在过去，投资于新兴市场股票的投资者往往要求大幅折扣，用以抵消政治风险和制度风险。而现在他们支付着高昂的溢价。

金砖四国存在风险。中国人为压低本币汇率，并因此而蕴藏着通胀风险。俄罗斯严重依赖能源出口。印度政府机构臃肿、种族冲突不断、与邻国剑拔弩张，并对外来投资施加控制。巴西本币不断升值，这固然是对其成就的称颂，但也对出口构成了威胁。

金砖四国的股价可能急剧下跌。如果是在2007年11月投资于iShares/摩根士丹利资本国际金砖四国指数基金(iShares MSCI BRIC Index fund)，一年时间里这笔投资的价值就折损了三分之二。现在它已经实现了快速反弹。

但在2010年年初，全世界的股票都被高估，整体上现在买进股票似乎都充满了风险，买进金砖四国股票风险更大。

Source from:  JACK HOUGH